It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times (to be an investor)

There has never been a better time to be an investor. We have unprecedented choice, transparency and control. There has also never been a worse time to be an investor. We have unprecedented choice, transparency and control.

Although it may seem heretical, there is a strong case to be made that the evolution of the investment industry – in particular the wonderful technological advancements – has actually made life more difficult. Why? Because so little thought is given to the behavioural consequences of the profound changes we have witnessed. Indeed much of the technological progress we have seen threatens to turn investors into gamblers.

There are two elements that are central to short-term investor decision making – emotional stimulus and friction.

Emotional stimulus simply means that how we feel impacts and often overwhelms the choices we make. What the psychologist Paul Slovic might call the ‘affect heuristic’.

This could be fear, greed, anxiety, excitement, envy or a multitude of other things. The problem for investors is that we are engulfed by a constant barrage of financial market babble that inevitably provokes an emotional response. We can see how our portfolio performs minute by minute, we hear about the incredible successes of other investors on social media, we get bombarded with news about every market fluctuation. All of these things make us feel something, which often compels us to take action.

This might be harmless enough if it were it not coupled with another development – the removal of friction from our investment decision making.

Friction simply means how hard something is to do, and it is more powerful than we think. As Robert I. Sutton and Huggy Rao argue in their new book: ‘The Friction Project‘, we can get ourselves into big trouble by making the wrong things easy and the right things hard.

The issue for investors is that technological developments have made many things easy – checking portfolios and trading – but without careful consideration of the negative behavioural implications. Investors have ended up in a situation where we are overwhelmed by emotional stimulus and have no friction to stop ourselves reacting to it.

It is as if the industry has said – ‘humans are prone to costly behavioural mistakes, so let’s make them as easy as possible to make’.

Of course, it is hard for any investment provider to say to their clients – ‘we are going to make things harder for you because we don’t trust you to make sensible choices’, but at the very least stronger behavioural interventions and better guidance is a necessity.

In the UK, online gambling firms are subject to a range of requirements related to client behaviour in order to obtain a license. Tools such as deposit limits and time outs are required features. These act as behavioural checks and balances, imperfect certainly but at least acknowledging some of the unfortunate realities of human behaviour.

It is easy to say that investing and gambling are two different things, but they are not so distinct from eachother. Indeed, the exact same decision may be a gamble for one person and an investment for another.

Two people might buy the same amount of Apple shares, one for a long-term share of profits and the other because they think the company will beat earnings forecasts later that day. One decision feels like an investment and the other a gamble. The difference between the two can sometimes just be intent and opportunity.

The present environment for investors – defined by noise, emotional stimulus and an absence of friction – will almost certainly drag many of us away from investing and towards gambling, where our actions will be increasingly short-term and speculative with poor odds of success. This is in the interests of some in the industry but certainly not most investors.

This frictionless backdrop also makes how firms communicate more critical than ever. Flooding investors with incessant market comment might be okay if there is friction present. If it is hard to trade, then maybe what is said doesn’t really matter as it is all quickly forgotten. This doesn’t apply anymore. Anything that is communicated to investors might be acted upon. Nothing should be considered benign. We should always ask – how might what we are saying make an investor feel and what might they do about it?

I understand the theory about why today is such a fantastic time to be an investor and much of it is valid. I fear, however, that human nature might mean there has never been a worse or more dangerous time to be an investor.

It is probably time we took behaviour seriously.



My first book has been published. The Intelligent Fund Investor explores the beliefs and behaviours that lead investors astray, and shows how we can make better decisions. You can get a copy here (UK) or here (US).

3 thoughts on “It Was the Best of Times, It Was the Worst of Times (to be an investor)

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