It is that most wonderful time when asset managers publish their expectations for the coming year, so I have decided to lightly update my 2025 version of what all of these will say:

Here goes:

– There is no AI bubble (2026 special): Nobody is going to tell clients there is an equity market bubble, but the importance of being selective will be emphasised.

– Uncertainty will persist, diversification is critical: This will be framed as being particular to the year ahead, but is always true.

– Investors need to be nimble: This is the asset allocators’ version of ‘a stock picker’s market’.

– Investors need to be discerning: A stock picker’s market.

– The traditional approach to portfolio management might not work anymore: Just in case a reader is investing in an old fashioned, unsophisticated way. Yes, the 60/40 is still dead.

– Economic growth will be fine (but with some downside risks): This must be the case because 1: Economic growth is usually solid in any given year and 2: It is not a great idea to tell clients that there is a recession looming.   

– Prevailing performance trends are likely to continue but could change: The safest bet is always to say that what has been working recently will continue to perform well next year This makes readers feel comfortable and plays on the propensity of markets to trend / people to extrapolate. It is important, however, to mention something about the potential for a ‘broadening out’ or ‘reversal’ – just in case.

– Alternative asset classes look attractive: Coincidentally, they also happen to have high fees and are difficult to replicate passively.

– A current key structural theme will profoundly impact markets: AI is incredibly important, but look beyond the obvious winners.

– We are at a critical turning point. Something significant is changing in the world order / investment landscape – you need our help to navigate it safely. Whatever you do, don’t be complacent. (Probably AI, again). 

– We should be worried about a loosely-specified tail risk that the market is obsessing over: There is always some tail risk that is concerning investors – it needs to be mentioned even if nobody is quite sure if it is a genuine risk or what to do about it (fiscal sustainability for the second year running).

– Equities will perform well: This is both likely to be true in any given year and avoids panicking readers. (Adjust as appropriate for fixed income / private market outlooks).

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These annual documents are generally a good, tangible reminder that we are hopeless at forecasting and that financial markets are always a rotating cast of salient topics that feel urgent in the moment but have little predictable bearing on long-term outcomes.

To the extent that short-term issues matter at all, it will be the ones that nobody is expecting that will have a significant market impact.

If read for what they are – a gentle sales pitch with some interesting financial market observations – they are harmless enough, particularly if they, somewhat inadvertently, encourage readers to stay invested over the long-term. But we certainly don’t need to be acting on them and rest assured nobody will remember anything that is being foretold now in 12 months’ time.

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My first book has been published. The Intelligent Fund Investor explores the beliefs and behaviours that lead investors astray, and shows how we can make better decisions. You can get a copy here (UK) or here (US).

All opinions are my own, not that of my employer or anybody else. I am often wrong, and my future self will disagree with my present self at some point. Not investment advice.